From the gossip I read, Knights of the Old Republic 2 isn't making Lucas Arts' projected sales. In January 2006, KotOR 2 sold 22,000 - 73,000 units. At the beginning, people look soley at the short-term sales projections. Lucas Arts is more concerned at the long-term sales projections. 'Knights of the Old Republic: The Original' had great short and long-term sales, and it went beyond expectations.
Is of course, gossip you've read. Whether those numbers are real or false remains to be proven. I doubt it was that low.
Remember when the game first came out, there were hundreds of great reviews online. However, television game networks were reporting a different reality. G4TV is not the most popular, but they reported to the public that KotOR 2 had holes and it was incomplete. Any type of good or bad publicity affects the sales of a product. If more people saw the bad publicity, the more they refuse to buy 'Knights of the Old Republic II'.
Which the effects are not proven either. It is merely speculation that television game networks can greatly affect sales.
I found through conversing with people online, over the past year, that there is an intresting lexicon. If you are between the ages of 12-18, you liked 'Knights of the Old Republic II' more than you liked the original. If you are between the ages of 19-28, people believed that both games were equal in value. If you are 29+, people believed that Knights of the Old Republic II was a good game, but it didn't hold an equal value to the original. I believe this gap is due to what each age group brings to the table. The younger you are, the less expectations one has. As you get to the older generation, the more experience with Star Wars shows up. Novels. magazines, and comics influence our expectations. We also draw back upon how we felt about the original version. Each group's interpretation is correct according to their lexicon. As the younger generation gets older, they will develope the same cognitions about Star Wars as the older generation. Experience with Star Wars is what seperates the age groups.
Which is not a scientifical research. I'm not saying you're wrong, but since it's only what you got from "conversing with people on the internet", you can hardly make solid conclusions.
What was all that about? Well, when it comes to sales, who is going to buy the product? If Lucas Arts doesn't make a product that crosses all groups, the less lilkely that their sales projections are meet. 'Knights of the Old Republic II's sale projections were based upon the original's sales record. Knights of the Old Republic I related to every age group, and brought in high sales. Knights of the Old Republic II, did not relate to all age groups, and brought in less sales.
Which does not stop a third installment from relating to all age groups.
All this garbage I was talking about influences a game success. I predict that Knights of the Old Republic III will have mediocre sales expectations. Unlike KotOR II, the third installment will have low short-term expectations, and high long-term expectations. This will make any game publisher worry. Because there is now the potential for failure based upon the first few months of game reviews. It is all interconnected.
Of course, you predict that, but I think publishers are smarter then that. They will probably do a small market study to see if there is enough potential buyers.
Since when has there not been the potential for failure? If that was so, only sequels would get made. There would be no new franchise starting. We'd be still stuck with Pong 2006 if things were as you claim them to be.
At the end, that is why KotOR II is not considered a success by everyone. It is not considered a top selling game for all the above combined.
No, it's not considered a top selling game because it didn't sell that well, not because of everything you said. Not because of projected sales or game television networks. More things affect sales then you might think.
Why did Ep3: The Video game and SWBF 1/2 sold so many units? There are many answers to that, answers we must get before we can correctly look at what happened to TSL.
First, marketing. I watch many sports channel. LucasArts spammed ads for SWBF 2 and the Ep3 video game on those channels.
Second, accessibility. Both SWBF games and the Ep3 game had versions for both the PS2 and the XBox (add the PC for SWBF). The PS2 is the biggest selling console of the last generation. All of those games were really accessible.
Finally, timing of release. SWBF was release around the OT DVD, Ep3: The Game around Ep3 and SWBF2 around the release of the Ep3 DVD and a rather dead fall season for gamers.
Now, let's apply that to TSL.
First, marketing. How many ads for TSL were they? Not many. It didn't get half the attention the first game did.
Second, accessibility. The XBox only has 21% of the market shares, the PC, even less. How can you sell a lot to only a maximum of maybe 25-30% of the whole gaming market while you hit over 80% by adding the PS2 to the mix?
(Forbes' numbers on the console market (
http://www.forbes.com/home/2003/12/22/cx_dd_1222mondaymatchup.html))
Note:The numbers are old, but still reliable. Microsoft may state that they have beaten the PS2 in North America, but their assertions are not backed up by much and it's only about the North American market.
Finally, timing. TSL on XBox came out in december 2004. What came out around that time period? Half-Life 2, Halo 2 and World of WarCraft. It was dwarfed and could not even stand up under the shadow of those giants. It was easily eclipsed by Halo2 on the XBox for the holidays.
I'm not saying my analysis is perfect, but I think it does take into account more elements then just "game reviews" and "not cathering to the right people".
I'll give an easy example of why those can often be erroneous. 50 cent, Bulletproof. That game was nuked by reviews and only cathered to 50 cent fans. Guess what, it sold over 1 million units (Source (
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060124/latu004.html?.v=29)).