(Note: This guide assumes you know the rules of Pazaak and have thought at least a little bit about strategy).
Pazaak can be a challenging game in KOTOR, especially because the odds are slanted toward "the house" (basically, any NPC you play Pazaak with), due to the fact that we always play first. This does two things that negatively affect our play:
1. It creates a tendency for our card total to go up 'faster' than our opponent's.
2. It allows our opponent to better react to our play.
This isn't a deal-breaker, though. We can win at Pazaak, because when it comes down to it, we're smarter!
Having a good strategy is essential, and strategy begins with the purchasing and choosing of side deck cards. This is the most important aspect that turns it from a game of pure luck to a game that involves a certain degree of skill.
But first, let's think about some of the basic mechanics of the game without distracting variables and eliminate the side deck.
We're now JUST pulling cards from the main deck, with values of 1-10.
Now, all we're doing is deciding whether to "hit" or "stand". We are obviously going to hit on anything less than a 10. Once we're at 10+, here is a chart that provides us with a breakdown of that decision: Natural Chances (
http://members.dslextreme.com/users/double-d/images/pz_natural.gif)
The column on the left is our current total. The "Bust" column gives us the number of chances in 10 of busting (going over 20) on the next draw. For example, at 15, we have 5 chances in 10 (or 50%) of busting on the next draw. The "20" and "19" columns each represent our respective chances in 10 of getting a 20 and 19 on the next draw.
The "HF" column is what I call the "Hit Factor". It is the sum of our chances of getting a 20 or 19 minus the chances of busting. Our Hit Factor is at zero (0) on a 12. If we were playing an opponent who is also not using a side deck, this is the approximate point at which we should take our last hit.
When neither player has a side-deck, the disadvantage of going first is enormous. The second player can always react to the way the first player plays.
Now let us take a look at the various kinds of side deck cards we can use, and their effect on our Hit Factor.
Plus Cards
First, here's a look at "Plus" cards: Plus Cards (
http://members.dslextreme.com/users/images/double-d/pz_plus.gif)
Note that our chances of Busting on any given total haven't changed. However, because the presence of that particular card allows us to acheive the desired totals of 20 or 19 by EITHER drawing them naturally OR drawing PLUS playing the side deck card, we have essentially doubled our chances of acheiving a desired total.
With higher value Plus cards, however, we lose this advantage once we reach the point at which using the side deck card would Bust us. Therefore, it can generally be said that high value Plus cards are not very desireable. One could argue that our chart only goes down to 10, and therefor, doesn't show how high value Plus cards extend our double chances downward... but that doesn't matter, because we're drawing automatically on anything less than an 11 anyway. This means that if I prefer lower value plus cards to higher value plus cards. This does NOT mean that having a side deck of four "+1" cards is better than having a variety of plus cards in my side deck. "+1,+2,+3,+4" is a much better side deck than "+1,+1,+1,+1", because until we play our first side deck card, drawing a total of 16, 17, 18, or 19 will allow us to use a card to hit "20". With four "+1" cards, drawing a 16-18 would be a bad thing.
In summary: if I'm limited to only Plus cards for my side deck, I'm best off with a mix of low-value cards.
Minus Cards
Let's look at the chart for "Minus" cards: Minus Cards (
http://members.dslextreme.com/users/double-d/images/pz_minus.gif)
Here, our double-chances still exist, but the range shifts upwards as you get higher value cards, instead of downwards. This is MUCH better than the Plus cards, and makes HIGH value minus cards the most valuable. You may have noticed that we also lose our double-chances on totals in the low 10's, but this isn't really a problem, as I show in the next paragraph.
But this isn't the best thing about minus cards. The best thing is "bust protection". Look at the "Bust" column. Notice that for a "-6" card, we have zero chance of busting on a hit up through 16! This seems to indicate there's no risk in hitting up through 16.
(This isn't precisely true, as I'll explain later.) This means we can aggressively hit all the way through 16 when we have a -6 card on hand. This is a HUGE advantage. Basically, we ideally want a "natural 20", without having to play a card from our side-deck. Minus cards allow us to push up our total more freely, increasing our chances to get that natural 20. Should we overshoot, we can always back up and try again.
Let's say you have a 16 and choose to hit. A 4 or 10 on the draw will give you a 20, and a 3 or 9 will give you a 19. But what about a 5? If you draw a 5, you're stuck with a 21, and will be a bust, unless you use your card, which will bring you back down to 15. Doh! Now you've used a card, and are actually LOWER than where you started! (This isn't always bad, though, your opponent may just bust, due to the extra round, allowing you to win the set anyway).
Again, it's better to have a variety of cards in your side-deck. If you were restricted to minus cards, you'd ideally want "-6, -5, -4, -3". This is because our chances early in the game of getting a desirable total is improved again. With this side deck, let's go back to the example of the total of 16: I am guaranteed a 20 on drawing a 4, 7, 8, 9, or 10. Drawing a 3 or 6 will land me a 19. The worst draws are 1, 2 or 5... but none of those are really deal-breakers. This is a good situation to be in.
You should also note the "HF" column on the minus cards. While we lose our There's a "sweet spot" for every card right up at the top
Summary: Minus cards are excellent "bust protection", allowing us to more aggressively hit up through 16, if we go with the high value cards.
Dual Cards
Finally, everyone's favorite cards... the cards that can EITHER take a plus or minus value. Here is the chart: Dual Cards (
http://members.dslextreme.com/users/double-d/images/pz_dual.gif)
Two things stand out:
1. We have the same "bust protection" benefit as the minus cards.
2. We have some cards that offer a "triple-chance" at a 20. Example, we have a ±3 card, and are sitting on a 13. When we hit, a 7 will result in a natural 20, as always, but a 4 or 10 will allow us to use the card to get 20, also. Note, however, that ±5 and ±6 cards do not offer this triple chance.
If you're paying close attention, you'll notice that I don't include triple-chances for the 19s. The triple-chance actually exists, but the way I figure it, why jump up to 19, when you still have great chances of a natural 19, or 20, or a 19 or 20 after an over-shoot? A 19 is not worth using a dual card to jump up to, under most circumstances.
The best combination of these cards is a little less obvious. Low dual cards have a great range of triple-chances, while high dual cards have the great bust protection.
In my mind, I'd like to have a ±2, ±3, ±4, ±6 as my hand. The three lower value cards give me some great "offensive" power to nail those triple-chances, while I can keep the ±6 card "in reserve" as primarily a bust-protector (this could be done almost as well by a -6 card, but the ±6 has the added flexibility of being used as a plus, in a tight spot).
So why did I choose the ±2,3,4? They have the best combination of triple-chances and reduced busting. The ±1 is still quite good, though. The ±5, however, seems pointless, if I can have a ±6 in hand.
Summary: Dual cards offer a great flexibility for playing two different ways. First, low value dual cards offer great chance-enhancement, which the higher value cards offer the bust protection.
Two Approaches to a Set
There are basically two approaches you can take in a set. Look at it this way, plus cards are offensive, "early strike" tools, allowing you to jump straight to a 19 or 20, and thereby putting your opponent on the defensive.
Minus cards allow you to delay longer, perhaps reversing the "first play" disadvantage you have, as well as offering you the bust protection that will allow you to hit more aggressively, in the hopes of acheiving natural 19s and 20s.
Dual cards offer the chance to play either way, as circumstances dictate.
I favor a defensive approach earlier in the match, which is more likely to preserve my side-deck for later. Basically, you see what luck delivers to you... maybe your opponent will bust or you'll get some natural 19s or 20s that will win you sets without using any of your side-deck. Early on, always go for the natural win first and foremost, and perhaps use your dual cards in "minus" mode.
Use your cards in "plus" mode if you have at least two side-deck cards more than your opponent, and you have an easy shot at a 19 or 20. Chances are good that they will either go bust trying to match or beat you, or they will use play their last or second-last side-deck card to match or beat you. Once they're out of side-deck cards, they're at a major disadvantage.
If you get behind in sets, you may need to stay in the game by using your dual cards in their "plus" mode, too.
The Ideal Side Deck
My ideal side-deck is as I stated above: ±2, ±3, ±4, ±6
Of course, our total side-deck is 10 cards, and we select the four at random. I'd want a good chance of having a ±6 in each set, so I'd have several of those, and having multiple ±6 cards in my side-deck for a set isn't going to hurt me much, because of how I use them. However, for the lower value cards, variety is a good thing, and I prefer to avoid repeats. Therefore, my 10 cards side-deck would be designed as follows:
1x ±1
1x ±2
2x ±3
2x ±4
4x ±6
If you played a game heavily weighted toward defensive play, I'd go with the following deck:
5x ±6 or -6
5x ±5 or -5
Why not all ±6 or -6? Again... because having more than one value card will increase your chances of being able to add up to 20 or 19.
Anyway, I hope this little guide helps.
DeeDee